State of the Trades – 2024 Recap & What's to Come
This year has been a mixed bag for industries employing blue-collar workers. Some sectors are booming, while others continue to lag. Here’s a snapshot of the latest trends shaping the workforce.
Manufacturing: Slow Recovery and Decline in Output
GDP Contribution: $2.9 trillion in 2023
Employment: Slight growth with 1,000 jobs added in July
Struggles: Output volumes have stalled, and overall manufacturing is seeing declines in both durable and nondurable goods.
Key Stat: Employment in manufacturing is still slightly above pre-pandemic levels.
The U.S. manufacturing sector accounts for 10% of all economic productivity, contributing $2.9 trillion to GDP in 2023 and providing 13 million jobs. The sector saw a slow recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic, with output volumes not reaching pre-pandemic levels until November 2021. Since then, output has stalled, and in 2024, value-added output decreased for both durable and nondurable goods. However, employment in manufacturing has slightly increased, with 1,000 more workers in July 2024 than in June, remaining above pre-pandemic levels.
Trouble at Boeing: A Rocky Year with Major Layoffs
What’s happening: Boeing, the 9th largest U.S. manufacturer, has faced a tough 2024 with stock value down by 30%.
Impact: Boeing’s woes could trickle down to blue-collar jobs, with over 100 layoffs already announced in Alabama.
Why it matters: What happens at Boeing could set a precedent for the entire manufacturing sector.
Boeing, with $66 billion in annual revenues and 113,000 workers, is the ninth-largest manufacturer in the U.S. and holds significant influence on blue-collar employment. In 2024, the aerospace giant has faced challenges, including a whistleblower report and stock value plummeting by 30%. Boeing has already announced layoffs in Alabama, with more likely to follow.
Construction: A Post-Pandemic Boom in Full Swing
Growth Drivers: Federal legislation like the IIJA and CHIPS Act are fueling a surge in construction.
Key Stat: 900,000 jobs added since January 2021.
Outlook: With $500 billion in new projects since 2021, the construction sector shows no signs of slowing.
Unlike manufacturing, the construction industry has experienced a post-pandemic boom, thanks to federal legislation such as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) and the CHIPS Act. Since 2021, $500 billion worth of new projects have fueled the creation of approximately 900,000 jobs, with no sign of slowing down.
Energy Industry: Jobs Shrink Despite U.S. Energy Independence
What’s the deal: Despite achieving energy independence, the oil and gas sector is facing job losses.
Key Stat: Nearly half of oil and gas workers have lost jobs at least once since 2020.
Challenges: Boom-and-bust cycles and efficiency drives are leading to lower employment rates in the fossil fuel sector.
Despite recent U.S. energy independence, the oil and gas industry has experienced job losses. Nearly half of oil and gas workers have lost jobs since 2020 due to boom-and-bust cycles and efficiency drives. This trend is significant, as 1.7 million workers are employed in the fossil fuel industry.
AI and Automation: What It Means for Blue-Collar Jobs
Good News: Only 1% of blue-collar jobs are at risk from AI, compared to 30% of white-collar jobs.
Manufacturing Impact: AI is enhancing automation, but it’s still far from replacing hands-on skilled labor.
While AI poses a risk to white-collar jobs, blue-collar professions are relatively safe, with only 1% of jobs affected. Automation may change the landscape of manufacturing, but it’s still far from replacing skilled labor.
Labor Shortages: The Next Supply Chain Crisis?
Key Industries Affected: Transportation (33,000 truck driver deficit), Plumbing (55% below needed workforce), and Manufacturing.
Wage Impact: Labor shortages could drive wages up, but also lead to higher workloads and safety risks.
Severe labor shortages are affecting key industries, including transportation and plumbing. With a deficit of truck drivers and plumbers, this shortage is both an opportunity for wage increases and a challenge in managing workloads safely.
Global Trends: Where Blue-Collar Jobs Are Growing (and Shrinking)
China: A surge in blue-collar jobs with a 165% increase in demand among workers under 25.
Europe: A steady decline in young blue-collar workers, with the share of young workers dropping from 12% in 2000 to 7% in 2022.
Globally, trends differ between regions. In China, young workers are increasingly turning to blue-collar jobs, while Europe is seeing a decline in the number of young workers in these fields.
‘New Collar’ Workers: Blurring the Line Between Blue and White Collar
What’s happening: 'New collar' workers are filling the gap between blue- and white-collar jobs with advanced skills, but no degree needed.
Future Outlook: These roles are poised to grow, especially in fields like AI and automation.
‘New collar’ workers, skilled but without degrees, are blurring the lines between traditional blue- and white-collar roles. These workers are finding opportunities in AI and automation, and their roles are expected to grow.
Final Thoughts:
From manufacturing struggles to a booming construction industry, the trades are at a pivotal point. Stay informed by subscribing to State of the Trades for more updates on the key developments shaping blue-collar professions.
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